Fear Factor Biases Associated Press Poll in Venezuela

William H. Klemme (November 24, 2006)
November 26, 2006


24 NOV 2006 | The Associated Press, on Thanksgiving Day, released results of its own Associated Press-IPSOS poll giving Venezuelan incumbent President Hugo Chávez a strong lead in the current presidential race. According to this poll nearly 59 percent of likely voters stated they would vote for Chávez, while only 27 percent indicated a preference for opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. The recent Penn, Schoen and Berland poll strongly contradicts these figures, as it indicates a tight race where 48 percent are for Chávez and 42 percent for Rosales.

Who are we to believe? Machiavelli himself would be at his wits’ end in sorting out what is now being called the Public Opinion Poll Wars. It is imperative that we ask ourselves: Who has hired these numerous pollsters, and what agenda motivates them to commission such polls? Can the format of the questions asked and the conditions under which they must be answered predetermine or bias the results of the poll? Reportedly many of these polls have been conducted at the behest of PDVSA and the Venezuelan officialdom, directly or indirectly. Also, business interests in Venezuela and abroad have a vested interest in knowing the direction of this presidential campaign. The principal player in this case was The Associated Press, who teamed up with IPSOS Venezuela, a subsidiary of IPSOS Group, based in France and controlled by Jean-Marc Lech and Didier Truchot.

The fear factor explains the glaring differences between the poll conducted by Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates and that of The Associated Press poll administered by IPSOS Venezuela. While the AP-IPSOS poll was based on face-to-face interviews, the Penn, Schoen and Berland poll approached anonymous respondents on the street and proceeded to hand them printed questionnaires. Upon completion of the questionnaires, respondents deposited them in the boxes provided while poll takers had their backs turned, thus respecting the privacy and anonymity of the respondents. One can safely assume that respondents in the Penn, Schoen and Berland poll felt no intimidation or fear of future reprisals, while participants in the AP-IPSOS poll, with no offer of privacy or anonymity, must have felt psychologically intimidated and coerced into participating and shaping their answers in a way that pleased the officialdom. For all they knew, the pollsters could have been Venezuelan government officials or intelligence operatives of the Cuban G2.

The issue of the fear factor in the AP-IPSOS poll and its likely absence in the Penn, Schoen and Berland poll strongly suggest that the difference in the results may be an artifact of the methodologies employed, namely the intimidating face- to-face approach of AP-IPSOS and the friendlier and anonymous procedure employed by Penn, Schoen and Berland.

It is disturbing that The Associated Press, in a broader context, has been presenting to its readers in the United States and elsewhere a biased image of what is actually happening in Venezuela. Elizabeth Núñez, AP correspondent in Venezuela, has demonstrated a tendency to present a plain vanilla version of the less pleasant aspects of the Venezuelan situation. In reporting the infamous speech by Rafael Ramírez, President of state-owned PDVSA and Minister of Energy and Petroleum, she conveniently omitted any reference to his vulgar language and his threats of physical violence to PDVSA workers who did not follow the Chavista party line in the current presidential campaign. Furthermore, in her AP dispatches she has selectively underplayed the Venezuelan people’s increasing support for Manuel Rosales. Similar bias in the coverage of events in Venezuela is also evident in reports by Simon Romero and John Forero in the New York Times and the Washington Post.





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