| Daily International News Review,
Venezuela
September 8, 2003
Alexandra Beech
New York, September 8, 2003
War is a series of catastrophes that results in a
victory
Georges Clemenceau
Sections
I.
Editorial, "Chávez Fears US Invasion"
II. Local News Review
III. International News - Sources
IV. Opinions
V. Events
I. Editorial, Chávez
Fears US Invasion
At Chávez’s inauguration ceremonies,
I stumbled into a television camera man who I had
hired during a prior trip to Venezuela. Proudly, he
told me that he and his sons had been hired as Chávez’s
personal camera crew. He pointed to a button on his
lapel with a US flag on it, and described a recent
trip to Washington DC, where he had accompanied Chávez
to meet President Clinton. He told me that Clinton
had personally given the Venezuelans the US flag buttons,
and even though there were not enough to go around,
he had gotten to keep the one he was wearing.
How things have changed since then between US and
Venezuela. I bet that no one around Chávez
would be caught dead bearing a US flag today.
The evolving Chávez mantra, if there ever was
one, is “Attack the United States!” Everyone
- from Chávez to his cabinet to his congress
representatives - has taken a shot.
When Chávez was deposed on April 11, 2002,
ruling party lawmaker Iris Varela told a European
film crew that she had been warning the Chavistas
all along that the CIA had a 19-point plan to overthrow
the Chávez government.
Taking his cue from his mentor Castro, Chávez
has also publicly and privately criticized the United
States government for its foreign policy and its economic
model.
Only weeks after September 11, Chávez held
up pictures of dead afghani children, victims of war.
Yet to date he has never held up pictures of the bodies
of those obliterated at the World Trade Center or
the Pentagon. Nor are there pictures of people who
have been executed in Cuba. Nor has he explained why
if Cuba is such a “sea of happiness”,
as he has described it, hundreds of thousands of Cubans
have risked their lives floating to freedom in the
United States.
Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel also loves to attack
the United States government. When White House senior
advisor Otto Reich traveled to Venezuela, Vice President
Rangel called him a “clown.” Then Rangel
apologized to clowns “because theirs is a noble
profession.”
The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General
Richard Myers didn’t escape the Rangel Wrath.
When Myers compared Venezuela to Syria and asked the
Venezuelan government to stop aiding and comforting
Colombian guerrillas, Rangel called him “irresponsible.”
When the US government urged the Venezuelan government
to adhere to the agreement for a referendum, Rangel
said "we are not a colony” and told them
to stop meddling. In fact, telling the US that Venezuela
is not a colony is a favorite Chavista pastime.
Venezuelan government officials made furious comments
last week after the US Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles
Shapiro, visited Venezuela's new National Elections
Council and offered technical help from the International
Foundation For Election Systems, a Washington-based
nongovernment group. Dow Jones reports that “Foreign
Minister Roy Chaderton claimed Venezuela's elections
systems were ‘much more modern and reliable’
than those in the U.S., apparently taking a jab at
the 2000 Florida presidential election troubles.”
Reuters reports that “Venezuelan President Hugo
Chávez warned the United States Sunday to back
off after its envoy in Caracas met with electoral
officials who must decide whether to allow a referendum
on the leftist leader's rule.” In addition,
“Shapiro, who the government has rebuked several
times before, drew criticism from two ministers after
holding a news conference at the council's headquarters
Wednesday and offering U.S. technical assistance for
the poll if requested.”
Now, Chávez has stepped up the ante, warning
the United States that Venezuela is no Liberia. Dow
Jones reports that “Chávez, who accused
the U.S. of helping to organize a military coup to
oust Chile's Salvador Allende in the 1970s and rigging
elections in Nicaragua to end Sandinista rule in the
1980s, warned Sunday that any similar plan for Venezuela
would fail.” During a talk today, Assistant
Secretary Roger Noriega said that while the US would
not interfere in Venezuela's affairs, it wasn't an
"uninterested spectator", and also expressed
support for Ambassador Shapiro.
Besides promoting the democratic right of suffrage
enshrined in the Venezuelan constitution, the United
States government is pushing for the referendum because
it is concerned about Venezuela’s current dealings
with terrorist nations. As US senior government officials
have warned for months, Venezuela does not consider
US interests a top priority. Hostile statements by
the president and his supporters denote that Chávez
would rather cavort and deal with US enemies than
concede to any requests by the US for fairness and
democracy. Reuters reports that “Washington
has been riled by Chávez's moves to strengthen
ties between the world's No. 5 oil exporter and countries
like Cuba and Libya.” Dow Jones informs that
“Washington, which bristles at Chávez's
friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro and his
opposition to U.S.-led efforts to expand free trade
in the Americas, supports the referendum as a means
to ensure stability in the world's No. 5 oil exporter.”
Any peaceful and democratic US involvement in Venezuela’s
crisis is welcomed by the opposition, who sees Cuban
interference as a greater concern than any influence
Washington could exert on Venezuela’s crisis.
Washington opines from afar, in public, whereas Castro
is sending thousands of Cubans to work in Venezuelan
neighborhoods, bringing their politics along with
them. If the latest polls are correct, and between
60-70% of Venezuelans oppose Chávez, then a
majority of Venezuelans also welcome any pressure
that the Bush administration could exert for the realization
of a recall referendum. Whether Chávez likes
it or not, Washington is on the right side this time,
and it is unlikely that the Bush Administration will
stop meddling until Chávez listens to his own
people and honors the constitution.
In other news, the Miami Herald reports that “Venezuela's
elections council said Friday it would decide next
week on the validity of more than three million signatures
accompanying an opposition petition demanding a recall
referendum against President Hugo Chávez.”
The electoral authorities will be working under intense
pressure. This morning, a fire erupted at the accounting
office at the electoral authority’s building.
On hand, “coincidentally”, was a government-friendly
leader who quickly blamed the opposition for the event,
as a small horde of Chavistas chanted, “Chávez
isn’t leaving, Chávez isn’t leaving”.
The fire caused no apparent damages to the millions
of signatures asking for a referendum."A fire
at Venezuela's national electoral authority on Monday
caused panic and inflamed a debate over a possible
referendum on President Hugo Chávez's rule,
but officials said it injured no one and appeared
to be accidental," according to Reuters. "The
blaze broke out at the downtown Caracas headquarters
of the National Electoral Council, the electoral body
whose task is to decide whether to call a national
vote on the leftist president's rule. The poll is
being sought by opponents of the populist leader but
is opposed by him and his government."
And even though Chávez loves baseball, baseball
doesn’t seem to love Chávez. “The
Florida Marlins and Colorado Rockies have urged players
to avoid the Venezuelan winter league because of political
turmoil, the head of Venezuelan pro ball said Friday,”
according to Associated Press. In addition, “Venezuela's
league said 20 major league teams have granted 61
players permission to winter ball in the country.
The statement did not specify the nationality of the
players.” Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, president
of the Venezuelan Baseball League, “argued that
U.S. State Department travel warnings aren't binding
for U.S. players or other citizens.” However,
besides political violence, people in the country
are dying every day from the rise in crime, as several
Venezuelan baseball players can now attest. For now,
baseball will have to wait as politics gets resolved.
Dow Jones: “The average price for Venezuela's
basket of crude oil and refined products for the 2004
federal budget will be between $18 to $20 a barrel,
the chief financial officer of state-owned oil monopoly
Petroleos de Venezuela (E.PVZ) was quoted as saying
in a local daily Monday. The current 2003 budget is
based on an average price of $18/bbl. Talks between
PdVSA, the Oil Ministry and the Finance Ministry continue
in order to set an average between that range for
the 2004 budget, Jose Gregorio Morales was quoted
as saying. Morales could not be reached for additional
comment. Oil revenues account for a third of GDP,
half of government income and 80% of exports.”
Former Colombian Senator Samuel Lopesierra, who was
extradited to the United States, acknowledged giving
former President Ernesto Samper illegal campaign donations
and claimed Samper allies plotted to kill an opposition
leader, according to an interview published Sunday
in Cambio magazine. AP reports that “Lopesierra,
accused of heading a ring that sent tons of cocaine
to the United States, was sent to the United States
on Aug. 29 in the custody of U.S. Drug Enforcement
Administration agents.” In addition, “Lopesierra
business partners in Venezuela also paid off Samper,
he said.”
Dow Jones reports that “Venezuela's government
said Saturday an outbreak of yellow fever near the
border with Colombia is under control and doesn't
pose a serious threat to the general population. Twenty-one
people have been confirmed as suffering from the viral
disease and there are more than 200 suspected cases,
said Health and Development Minister Maria Urbaneja.”
*******
On September 11, a Commemorative Concert will take
place at the El Museo del Barrio in New York featuring
talented Venezuelan composer Carlos Carrillo and the
Carpentier Quarter. The Concert will take place at
6:30 pm and 8:00 pm in the courtyard. (www.elmuseo.org)
A performance by Venezuela’s master guitarist
Aquiles Baez will take place on Thursday, September
18, at 8:00 pm and 10 pm at “Satalla”,
37 West 26th Street in Manhattan. For more information,
please call (212) 343-0612. www.satalla.com.
Pianist Vanessa Perez, a native of Venezuela who has
performed with symphony orchestras throughout Europe
and South America, will showcase the works of Mozart,
Chopin, Schumann and Ravel at 7 p.m. Saturday at the
Wertheim Performing Arts Center at Florida International
University, Southwest 107th Avenue and Eighth Street.
AVENY would like to invite you to view a Venezuelan
film at Lincoln Center on Wednesday, September 24
at 6:30 p.m. The film is "The Archangel’s
Feather", which is part of the Series: Latin
Beat 2003: Recent films from Latin Amerca. Its director
is Luis Manzo with music by Aquiles Baez.(www.amigosny.com)
Also, please don’t miss The Revolution will
not be Televised, playing in New York at the Film
Forum on November 5-11. Shot by filmmakers Kim Bartley
and Donnacha O'Briain, this pro-Chávez documentary
is considered the “definitive film” on
Venezuela’s crisis. I saw it this weekend, and
it’s a very biased representation. After months
in Venezuela, the filmmakers only managed to capture
the most rabid elements of the opposition, while showing
a “docile” Iris Varela upset about Chávez’s
April 11 demise. You will not see any massive opposition
marches or interviews with opposition leaders here.
However, many around the world are convinced that
this films show the truth about Venezuela. The only
way to contest it is to view it.
A display by Venezuelan artist José Antonio
Hernández-Diez will remain at the New Museum
in New York until September 21 (www.newmuseum.org).
On April 11th, 2003, Vicky Fulop and Myrna Rodriguez
started a tradition of praying the rosary once a week
for Venezuela. Since the first anniversary of the
April 11 massacre, Venezuelans residing in the Tampa
Bay area have gathered every Monday night, united
by the love for their country and the need to support
their families, friends and countrymen in this time
of need. Now, they would like Venezuelans all over
the world to join them every Monday night at 7:00
p.m. by forming rosary groups in their areas. (Please
see our Events section for info)
I urge you to catch Venezuelan tenor "Aquiles
Machado" who will perform at the Metropolitan
Opera House as Rodolfo in "La Boheme" on
November 7 and 22. I saw him in this role at the Kennedy
Center in Washington last fall, and he is truly exceptional.
Highly recommend it!
Alexandra Beech
ab@veninvestor.com
II. Local News
· Fire at the CNE this morning. A short circuit
in the electric panel on the third floor of the National
Electoral Council building in downtown Caracas this
Monday morning created panic, mobilized 40 firefighter
trucks and 150 men while more than 600 employees had
to be evacuated because of the heavy smoke. According
to the Commander of Caracas Metropolitan Firefighting
Unit, Rodolfo Briceño, it was known a group
of electricians from Electricidad de Caracas or the
Centro Simón Bolivar had been working in the
north wing of the building prior to the explosion
which forced employees to evacuate the upper floors.
Almost immediately, a group of some 60 pro-government
people rallied outside the building frantically chanting
slogans, punching reporters and trying to break the
security cord spread by the National Guard troops,
who are responsible for the custody of the building.
Former Caracas governor, MVR Germán Gruber
Odremán, who told reporters he happened to
be in the neighborhood, said it could be presumed
it was sabotage. When asked why he happened to have
a megaphone with him, he obscenely replied he carried
it to “stick it up his behind”.
· Norms for referenda to be discussed today.
The directorate of the National Electoral Council
(CNE) is to meet today at 11 am to receive the report
from the body’s legal advisor, Andrés
Brito, on the recall referenda norms, and begin the
discussion thereafter. The drafted norms to be discussed
have five sections in which the functions of the electoral
body, the procedures for totalizing and scrutiny,
the ballot question norms, the electoral campaign
rules and the impugnation procedures are detailed.
The directors have promised they will make their decision
on the presidential recall referendum public by Friday.
A decision on the governors’ and mayors’
recall referenda is also expected since their mandates
will expire in July 2004 making the petitions untimely.
· GN helicopter crashed in Táchira State.
A military helicopter crashed against a neighborhood
this morning in San Cristóbal, Táchira
State. The local government informed the accident
resulted in the death of a National Guard colonel,
Carlos Avila Torres, and six people (four GN officers,
a priest and a lawyer) injured who are being attended
to at the Military Hospital in San Cristóbal.
No causes for the accident have been disclosed yet.
Another helicopter crashed in Lara State three hours
later. Details are unknown at the time.
· Summary of Aló Presidente # 1. In
his Sunday radio and television show broadcast from
the presidential palace of Miraflores, President Hugo
Chávez:
- began by remembering Chile’s president Salvador
Allende and the events of September 11, warning, “I
am going to say it today again, so that they are not
mistaken again: this revolution has weapons to defend
itself, different from that revolution, also pacific
of Allende’s, but that was unarmed”. He
argued three decades ago, from the Pentagon and the
CIA, they infiltrate the Armed Forces, the unions
and every conceivable organization for their coup-mongering
interests, and that something similar happened in
Nicaragua, where the American government armed the
“Contra” to exterminate the Sandinista
movement.
- confessed he contacted the president of the CNE,
Francisco Carrasquero, to convey his annoyance and
demand an explanation for the visit the US Ambassador,
Charles Shapiro paid to the electoral body before
the representatives of the national public powers.
President Chávez warned Shapiro and the American
government “this is a sovereign country and
that has to be respected”, arguing the American
government is trying to “stick their hands”
into the Venezuelan politics, backing the opposition.
He warned “those who are trying to set up a
play similar to Nicaragua” where the Sandinistas
were robbed the elections to favor Violeta Chamorro,
that they are going to dash against the armed forces
and the people. He claimed the dream of the opposition
is that the Marines arrive, invade Venezuela and kill
him, but the armed forces and the people won’t
allow it to happen. He claimed the CNE was as responsible
as Shapiro for what happened.
- doubted the “crazed irrational opposition”
can meet the requirements established in the Constitution
to petition a recall referendum, and reminded his
viewers it’s “a rational option”
as long as it respects the Constitution.
- insisted an attempt to assassinate him is being
concocted in the Dominican Republic and that ministers
of Hipolito Mejias’ s government know it and
do nothing about it. He informed the Venezuelan Ambassador,
General (r) Francisco Belisario Landis has been summoned
for consultations to evaluate the situation. He said
he did not fear for his life, but for the “peace
of Venezuela”, adding he “will, regretfully,
not go back to the Dominican Republic until the terrorist
and conspirators’ nest against my government
and myself has been eliminated”.
- urged the ruling majority at the National Assembly
to speed up the passing of the Supreme Court of Justice
Organic Law, and again questioned the decision taken
by a court against the Into the Sums program, suggesting
those justices should be prosecuted.
- announced he will not tolerate that the communication
media, the national or transnational companies, police
or judicial power sabotage the government’s
initiatives, and threatened the media to close them,
the Metropolitan Police to “ attack them with
the war tanks” and to “seize and hand
over the people any national or transnational company
that attempts against the interests of the people”.
· Minister of Agriculture and Lands confirms
resignation. Efrén Andrades Linares ratified
the information of his dismissal from the position
of Minister of Agriculture and Lands stating it was
due to changes in the government. The acting minister
is the vice-minister, Arnoldo Márquez.
· Government announces campaign to stop aphthous
fever. The vice-minister and acting Minister of Agriculture
and Lands, Arnoldo Márquez, announced an immediate
vaccination drive in the nine border states to try
to contain the outbreak of aphthous fever starting
this Monday after a meeting with agrarian authorities
from Colombia and Venezuela with a joint effort among
mayors, governors, the Minister’s units of development,
and the unions and ranchers’ associations. The
Minister announced they even met with a representative
from the US Department of Agriculture in Venezuela,
Eliana Hoggins, who offered $100,000 to contribute
to the campaign.
· Dominican Republic receives no oil from Venezuela.
The president of the Dominican Oil Refinery, Refidomsa,
Amaury Justo confirmed a local radio station the country
is not receiving any oil from Venezuela, and has contacted
other markets while it negotiates a new contract with
PDVSA. As to whether there is a relation between the
interruption of the oil supply and President Chávez’s
claim of a conspiracy being concocted in the Dominican
Republic, Justo indicated they “have not been
informed by PDVSA it is a political problem.”
Justo said the ideal situation for Refiidomsa is to
import the oil from Venezuela that is a traditional
market, and from a commercial point of view Venezuelans
will also find it convenient to keep relations with
them.
Sol María Castro
solcastro@veninvestor.com
III. International News
- Source
* New York Times
Venezuela's Chávez Warns U.S. to Back Off
* Wall Street Journal
Venezuela's Chávez Warns US Against Domestic
Interference
* Wall Street Journal
Venezuela Govt Scoffs At US Offer Of Election Assistance
* Reuters
Fire at Venezuela electoral authority causes panic
* El Nuevo Herald
EEUU: Referéndum en Venezuela "es una
bendición"
* Washington Post
Rockies, Fla. Warn Players Off Venezuela
* Miami Herald
Latin American Briefs
From Herald Wire Services
CARACAS - Venezuela's elections council said Friday
it would decide next week on the validity of more
than three million signatures accompanying an opposition
petition demanding a recall referendum against President
Hugo Chávez.
National Elections Council President Francisco Carrasquero
promised to decide on the signatures ``this very next
week so that there won't be doubt and uncertainty
in the country.''
A decision either way could spark more unrest in the
South American nation, which saw a failed 2002 coup
and a general strike earlier this year that helped
ruin the economy.
* Associated Press
For those who tried to oust Venezuela's Chávez,
a lonely exile
* Wall Street Journal
Venezuela:Avg Oil Price For '04 Budget $18-20/Bbl
- Paper
* New York Times
Ex - Colombia Senator to Expose Corruption
* Wall Street Journal
Heavy Combat In Colombia Leaves 7 Soldiers, 8 Rebels
Dead
* New York Times
30 Years Later, a Coup's Scars Have Been Masked
* Wall Street Journal
Venezuela Says Yellow Fever Outbreak Is Under Control
* Miami Herald
YELLOW FEVER OUTBREAK IS CALLED NO THREAT
* Evening Standard
Venezuela woe effects Wood profits
OIL services specialist Wood Group has warned that
delays to lucrative deep-water projects and political
uncertainty in Venezuela could hit results next year.
Pre-tax profits for the half-year to 30 June met forecasts
at $58m (£36.5m) - 14% up on the same period
a year ago - and the interim dividend is lifted 10%
to 1.1 cents. Wood has won $100m of new long-term
deals.
IV. Opinions
La presunta "invasión" estadounidense,
como la calificó el presidente Hugo Chávez,
es en el fondo el reconocimiento de una grave crisis
que genera inestabilidad en la región. De naturaleza
diferente al conflicto de Colombia, es quizás
más grave a futuro si se extrapolan algunos
factores ideológicos confusos que asocian el
Gobierno al terrorismo y al hecho de que algunos observadores
están persuadidos de que en Venezuela, como
en la isla de Cuba, los líderes "rebeldes"
detentan el poder
ORLANDO OCHOA TERAN
ESPECIAL EL UNIVERSAL
Una vez más el presidente Chávez se
refirió a la posibilidad de una "invasión"
de EEUU a Venezuela. Para enfatizar su denuncia se
uniformó y advirtió que Venezuela no
era "invadible" como Liberia. "Patria
o muerte", "pelearemos con las uñas"
amenazó Chávez. En la oportunidad de
la toma de posesión del presidente Nicanor
Duarte de Paraguay también fue arrastrado por
los mismos temores: "Si alguna fuerza, venga
de EEUU o de la Luna, pretendiera invadir a Venezuela,
hay un pueblo que saldrá a defender el país,
aun cuando no tenga armas".
Es inevitable. Cada vez que un jefe de Estado acude
a estos arrestos para advertir sobre una presunta
invasión recordamos al agudo periodista Amir
Taheri, del diario Arabs News, quien relataba que
en septiembre de 1994, Raoul Cedras, entonces hombre
fuerte de Haití, le aseguraba en una entrevista:
"Los americanos no podrán hacer nada,
Haití no es Grenada". Una década
después el general serbio Ratko Mladic proclamaba:
"Bosnia no es Haití". Más
tarde Slobodan Milosevic, presidente de Serbia, anunciaba
por la BBC de Londres: "Serbia no es Bosnia"
En diciembre de 2001, el líder Talibán,
Mullah Muhammad Omar advirtió al mundo que
un ataque de EEUU a Afganistán marcaría
la "destrucción de América".
En enero de este año, Saddam Hussein, en una
reunión del Consejo del Comando Revolucionario
alertó: "Irak no es Afganistán".
Cuando EEUU amenazó a Irán que no permitiría
que continuaran con el desarrollo de armas nucleares,
Hassan Rouhani, el secretario general del Alto Consejo
Nacional de la Defensa ripostó: "Irán
no es Irak y nuestros héroes lucharán
hasta derramar la última gota de sangre".
¿Es en realidad Venezuela invadible, intervenible?
Veamos.
Política jeffersoniana
El retirado senador Jesse Helms, ex presidente de
la Comisión de Política Exterior del
Senado solía, decir que en lo sustancial la
política exterior de EEUU no había variado
desde que Thomas Jefferson la formulara fundamentada
en tres premisas básicas: diplomacia, embargo/bloqueo
o intervención/guerra. En efecto, casi dos
tercios del territorio de EEUU fue anexado, adquirido
o conquistado bajo estos tres principios. El desalojo
militar del Imperio Español del Caribe y de
Asia, el triunfo militar en la Primera y Segunda Guerra
Mundiales así como el de la Guerra Fría,
hacen de EEUU la única y "solitaria"
potencia global. Conflictos de mediana y baja intensidad
durante las últimas décadas del siglo
pasado ampliaron este poder a niveles históricos
sin precedentes.
No obstante, hace 30 años, el 16 de octubre
de 1973, cuando la OPEP decreta el embargo árabe
petrolero contra occidente éste no fue suficiente
para provocar una intervención militar. Sólo
en la fértil imaginación de un novelista
se planteó entonces una invasión al
Medio Oriente y a Venezuela para asegurar las fuentes
de energía, tal como la recreó el escritor
James Grady en su best seller, Los 7 días del
Condor.
Transcurridas estas tres décadas del embargo
petrolero ya no se puede decir que una intervención
a Venezuela, como la ha planteado el presidente Chávez,
es absolutamente descartable u obra de una fantasiosa
imaginación. El 11S cambió al mundo
y EEUU ha incorporado a su agresiva política
exterior nuevos elementos que hasta hace poco eran
inconcebibles en la subyacente moralidad que se le
quiso imprimir a la imposición de sus propios
valores democráticos.
Hoy EEUU reclama el derecho de atacar militarmente
o asesinar como una acción preventiva para
alcanzar objetivos estratégicos o impedir otro
atentado terrorista a su territorio. Esta doctrina
declara incluso la intención de evitar por
todos los medios que otra potencia se aproxime al
nivel de desarrollo militar de EEUU. Antes de iniciar
la invasión a Irak el vocero de la Casa Blanca,
Ari Fleischer, comentó que una bala (en la
cabeza de Hussein) era una proposición mucho
más económica que la militar.
Formas de intervenir
Con frecuencia se olvida que en América Latina
las intervenciones de EEUU han tomado múltiples
formas y no necesariamente el formato de una invasión
militar. ¿Quién puede negar que Colombia
vive actualmente una forma de intervención
propiciada, aceptada, admitida por su clase gobernante
y por una mayoría popular que se refleja en
las encuestas en el entendido que este es un mal menor
a la perspectiva de caer bajo la égida de un
narco-estado? En Venezuela la mera mención
de esta posibilidad invasora provoca airadas posturas
de patrioterismo y de "traición a la patria"
del chavismo.
Pero es el mismo gobierno bolivariano el que periódicamente
nos recuerda, a su conveniencia, la presunta intervención
y la probable "invasión" como la
califica Chávez. En el fondo es el reconocimiento
de una grave crisis que genera inestabilidad en la
región. De naturaleza diferente al conflicto
de Colombia, es quizás más grave si
se extrapolan algunos factores ideológicos
confusos que asocian al Gobierno al terrorismo y al
hecho de que, para algunos observadores, en Venezuela,
como en Cuba, los "rebeldes" son los que
detentan el poder.
La legitimidad
No es fácil trasladar el esquema iraquí
a Venezuela para construir una hipótesis de
invasión. Sin embargo, la legitimidad que Chávez
perdería a través del referendo revocatorio
o con las maniobras para eludirlo o posponerlo indefinidamente
jugarán un papel clave. En este último
caso desataría una presión internacional
que puede tomar cualquiera de las formas históricas
conocidas. La invasión, la más remota,
sería un error que favorecería el carácter
heroico de Chávez así como sus intereses
políticos presentes y futuros.
Pero lo que hoy luce como absurdo bien podría
encuadrar en la "racionalidad" que los halcones
del Pentágono han diseñado para responder
por la fuerza a las supuestas amenazas a la seguridad
nacional de EEUU, sin importarles mucho el costo político.
La urgencia electoral de EEUU en 2004 precipitará
cualquier decisión. ¿Se colocará
Chávez, por conveniencia o convicción
en estos supuestos que activarían una forma
de intervención cubierta, encubierta o indirecta
por interpuesto país?
El presidente Chávez, habituado como está
a la práctica de lanzar una granada a cada
obstáculo que encuentra en el camino y ante
la inminencia de un nuevo escenario electoral, ha
hundido el pie en el acelerador para crear un clima
de confrontación interno o externo, o ambos.
Acentuar la confrontación con EEUU y con Colombia
luce como una de sus opciones. El presidente Uribe
no parece dispuesto a hacer concesiones y arriesgar
su cómoda posición política.
En fin, el futuro de la revolución bolivariana
y su presuntuosa proyección regional dependerá
de la actitud que asuma el comandante Chávez
en el estrecho espacio y el poco tiempo que le queda
para maniobrar nacional e internacionalmente.
o.ochoa@worldnet.att.net
*******
La Nacion
Tras el giro conservador en el Viejo Continente: ante
la falta de líderes y propuestas
Una crisis jaquea a la izquierda europea
En Francia, Italia y España, la oposición
socialista no logra sacar ventaja de los problemas
de la derecha
* El PSOE no pudo capitalizar el rechazo de los españoles
a las políticas de Aznar
* Los franceses intentan resistir los embates de sectores
más radicalizados
MADRID.- Casi al mismo tiempo, el alerta sonó
en los principales partidos socialistas de Europa,
que -lejos de la gloria de los 90, cuando sus líderes
gobernaban en buena parte del continente- están
ahora no sólo derrotados en las urnas, sino,
lo que es peor, sumidos en una crisis de liderazgo,
propuestas y espíritu ganador de la cual aún
no se ve salida.
Los casos más extremos se advierten en España,
Francia e Italia, donde sus estructuras no encuentran
el modo de sacar ventaja de las enormes dificultades
de la derecha en el poder.
"Necesitamos un diagnóstico claro de la
situación", se escuchó anteayer
en un plenario desesperado del legendario Partido
Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), incapaz de
capitalizar el rechazo del 90% de los españoles
al alineamiento de la derecha de José María
Aznar en la guerra de Irak.
Lejos del carisma extraordinario de Felipe González,
que gobernó en España durante catorce
años, su actuar líder, José Luis
Rodríguez Zapatero, se perfila con mal pronóstico
para los comicios de 2004 -los sondeos le daban ayer
una intención de voto inferior al 30%- y su
estilo todavía vacilante y escasamente aguerrido
le valió el apodo de Bambi.
Las cosas no están mejor en el Partido Socialista
francés (PS), necesitado urgentemente de intelectuales
capaces de devolverle brillo y espíritu, tras
la derrota electoral del año pasado ante la
ultraderecha de Jean Le Pen y la derecha de Jacques
Chirac.
"Los socialistas están regresando",
aseguró en mayo último su líder,
François Hollande. Pero, cuando faltan pocos
meses para las elecciones regionales, de eso y de
su promesa de un socialismo unido se ve poco y sí
bastante más del avance de expresiones de izquierda
radicalizada, que lo aventaja en convocatoria, con
el líder agricultor Joseph Bové a la
cabeza.
Discursos robados
"La izquierda europea no supo reacomodarse a
la liberalización de la derecha, que sí
se desplazó más al centro y conquistó
un electorado independiente que, en otro momento,
se habría identificado con ellos. El drama
de la izquierda es que su discurso está en
un extremo donde no tiene a quién moderar",
dijo a LA NACION el profesor Mariano Castañeira,
decano del posgrado en Acción Política
de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria.
"El comportamiento suicida de la izquierda francesa
en los últimos comicios demuestra una muy profunda
crisis en la izquierda europea. El no apoyar a un
solo candidato y la incapacidad de movilizar votantes
revelan que perdieron la visión precisa de
su país y la disciplina para ganar", acotó
Michael Leeden, columnista de The Wall Street Journal.
Hasta Santiago Carrillo, el legendario ex secretario
general del Partido Comunista Español, habla
sin ambages de la "crisis de la izquierda"
en el continente, donde quienes aún gobiernan
en países centrales -el laborista Tony Blair,
en Gran Bretaña, y el socialdemócrata
Gerhard Schršder, en Alemania- no hacen mucho
por levantar la bandera.
Blair desafió las bases de su partido con propuestas
para privatizar servicios de transporte y salud y
mucho más al convertirse en el principal aliado
de los Estados Unidos en la guerra de Irak. Y Schršder
lleva adelante reformas laborales y del sistema de
pensiones que deleitan a liberales y enervan a los
sindicatos.
"Eso es lógico. Tener perfil de izquierda
no significa ser un voluntarista suicida. Schršder,
al igual que Blair, practica una izquierda realista
que enfrenta situaciones de recesión y de crisis
del aparato público como debe hacerse. Incluso
en la época difícil de González
en España se realizaron reformas sin que desapareciera
la imagen de partido de izquierda", terció
el politólogo Ludolfo Paramio.
Director del reconocido Instituto de Estudios Sociales
Avanzados de Madrid, Paramio puso en duda la tesis
de crisis en la izquierda europea.
"Tras el triunfo de Blair, se habló de
un giro a la izquierda en Europa. Luego Lionel Jospin
perdió en Francia y se habló de giro
a la derecha. Los partidos ganan y pierden; no hay
que exagerar un cambio que, en realidad, no se produjo.
Esto no es un sismo ni significa un declive imparable",
dijo.
Al problema de discurso en el socialismo se une el
de liderazgo. La prensa francesa advierte sobre el
riesgo de que la izquierda de Hollande se radicalice
para no perder espacio ante el éxito de grupos
opositores a la globalización. Pero, más
grave aún, lo que se está viendo es
su incapacidad para hacerse oír por esos sectores
radicales, que se le muestran hostiles, como ocurrió
en la reciente cumbre de Larzac, donde los globalifóbicos
destruyeron el local del PS, furiosos por la falta
de programas de partido.
Italianos divididos
La crisis de liderazgo es más costosa en Italia,
donde varias fuerzas de izquierda explotan los flancos
del gobierno de derecha de Silvio Berlusconi y suman,
en conjunto, un caudal de votos interesante. Pero
a la hora de estructurar ese poder, su atomización
puede más y pierden eficacia.
Volvió a ocurrir tras las elecciones de 2001,
cuando el triunfo de la derecha fue un mazazo demasiado
fuerte para la frágil coalición de izquierda
agrupada bajo El Olivo, del desgastado Romano Prodi,
y volvió a fragmentarse. Aun así, poco
después sus vertientes fueron capaces de enormes
demostraciones de fuerza, como la huelga que paralizó
al país por primera vez en 20 años en
rechazo a la reforma laboral de Berlusconi.
La protesta fue convocada por el carismático
líder sindical Sergio Cofferati, pero su poder
fue luego desafiado por el alcalde de Roma, el ex
comunista Walter Veltroni, quien prometió reunir
bajo su férula a toda la izquierda para los
próximos comicios. Algo que sus militantes
escucharon ya varias veces en los últimos años.
Las campañas despuntan en Europa y las citas
comiciales por venir dirán hasta qué
punto la izquierda fue capaz de superar las horas
difíciles que ahora vive.
Por Silvia Pisani
Corresponsal en España
V. Events
A Rosary for Venezuela
Venezuelans around the world
Pray for peace and reconciliation –
On April 11th, 2003 in a town called Clearwater in
the Tampa Bay, Vicky Fulop and Myrna Rodriguez started
a beautiful tradition of praying the rosary once a
week. Since the first anniversary of the sad events
that dressed in mourning the people of Venezuela,
Venezuelans residing in the Tampa Bay area, gather
every Monday night, united by the love for their country
and the need to support their families, friends and
compatriots in this time of need.
Let's all join them in the first worldwide rosary
for peace and reconciliation in Venezuela to be held
on Monday September the 15th, 2003 at 7:00pm eastern
time.
Lets hold hands and pray together knowing that we
are not alone.
For more information, please contact:
Tampa: Vicky Fulop – vfberlin@playerschool.com
New York: Maritza Ramirez de Agena – maritzarr2003@yahoo.com
*******
New York Times
November
By DAVE KEHR
Nov. 5
THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED The filmmakers
Kim Bartley and Donnacha O'Briain were on hand in
April of last year when Venezuela's populist president,
Hugo Chávez, was threatened by a right-wing
coup, and managed to record most of the action on
videotape. At Film Forum, through Nov. 11.
*******
Miami Herald
Concert pianist to perform at FIU
Pianist Vanessa Perez, a native of Venezuela who has
performed with symphony orchestras throughout Europe
and South America, will showcase the works of Mozart,
Chopin, Schumann and Ravel at 7 p.m. Saturday at the
Wertheim Performing Arts Center at Florida International
University, Southwest 107th Avenue and Eighth Street.
The show is being produced by Diana Feo.
Perez recently recorded a CD of Beethoven's Piano
Concerto in C Major with the Berliner Symphoniker,
as well as a CD of Mozart's D minor Concerto, with
prominent Venezuelan conductor Eduardo Martuert.
Perez's performing career has taken her to Europe,
Great Britain and South America where she has performed
as soloist and appeared at music festivals in France,
London, Italy and Germany.
Daily International News Review, Venezuela
September
5, 2003
See "Daily
International News Review 2003 File"
Si deseas publicar un art�culo, env�alo a articulos@11abril.com
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