The Strategic Implications of the Rise of Populism in Europe and South America

Source: Steve C. Ropp (www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi)
June 2005


SUMMARY
The end of the Cold War provided the United States with an enormous opportunity to reshape the national security environment, not only militarily but also economically and politically. Militarily, old alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have been enlarged and retooled, while new partnerships have developed elsewhere to deal with challenges such as humanitarian relief and complex emergencies. Economically, a consensus has increased as to the value of market mechanisms as tools for the promotion of development and sustained economic growth. And politically, processes of democratization have expanded the number of countries in the world that are either partially or fully democratic.

At the same time, our very success in this regard has created the preconditions for future bursts of populist turbulence in two democratic regions of the world where the United States has vital security interests?Europe and South America. Populist politicians already have altered the security environment in both regions and are likely to alter it more dramatically. Were bursts of populist turbulence to occur in either or both regions on a large scale, they would have the potential to undermine the democratic core upon which most of contemporary U.S. security policy is based. And in some regions, such as the Andes, where democratic institutions are particularly fragile, populist turbulence could even lead to state failure.

The potential rise of populism in Europe and South America should not be viewed by policy planners as posing just another specific type of security threat. For unlike the traditional, irregular, catastrophic, or disruptive ones normally considered in future scenarios, populism poses a potential challenge to the underlying political substructure that has given us the collective material capability and moral legitimacy to deal with all of these threats. In the final analysis, our ability to project power to deal with the whole spectrum of security challenges that the United States will face in the future depends upon our ability to deal with the potential challenges emerging from within representative democracy itself."

This monograph takes a fresh look at the contemporary populist phenomenon in Europe and the Americas. It describes populism, discusses the global context in which it is emerging, and then paints a picture of its general characteristics in four subregions in Europe and South America. It concludes with four recommendations for strategic planners as to how best to deal with it and with its potential consequences. Specifically, these recommendations include:

1. Considering possible bursts of populist turbulence to be on a par with other major security challenges in terms of future planning. This would suggest that strategic planners will need to educate themselves concerning the history and current nature of populism, particularly in their regional areas of responsibility. Policymakers should consider revising the U.S. National Security Strategy so as to reflect the importance of political systems and dynamics that cannot be classified as either fully democratic or totalitarian.

2. Focusing policy on containing populist movements before they come to power. Populists by definition use direct forms of political action to gain power within representative democracies and are thus inclined to continue using such techniques once power has been achieved. Although it may not always be easy or diplomatically feasible to influence the trajectory of populist politicians, efforts should be made to do so. The ultimate goal of policy should be to aid our democratic allies in their efforts to “mainstream” populist politicians and their movements.

3. Avoiding forming alliances of convenience with populists. In some cases, populist politicians in Europe and South America may support U.S. short-term political or military goals in order to “gain traction” domestically and/or internationally. Given the importance that preserving the institutional integrity of representative democracy has with regard to the achievement of long term U.S. security goals, strategic thinkers should resist the temptation to sacrifice these goals for any short-term gain.

4. Configuring U.S. military forces so that they are capable of dealing with the wide variety of challenges that individual populists or a larger burst of turbulence might present. Depending on the country and region, such challenges could run the gamut from state failure to rapid changes in the identities and associated strategic interests of powerful and internally coherent states. Although determination of the precise nature of such configurations is the purview of military experts, the possibility of future bursts of populist turbulence would seem to call for preservation of the broadest range of combat capabilities.

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